presidency

Scholars have long been in interested in describing precisely and theorizing what role campaign momentum — the use of a victory to push a lead more decisively against opponents — plays in the electoral process.

Political science scholarship has focused extensively on how voters make choices as the presidential primary campaign formally unfolds. But there has been relatively little study of which factors shape voter preferences in the informal period before the primaries.

In studying the mechanisms that determine how candidates prevail in presidential primaries, political scientists have often focused on momentum and how a candidate can pull away from the field. But they have also studied the “winnowing” process, analyzing the factors that cause candidates to drop out and, by attrition, ultimately leave one candidate as the nominee.

Political campaigns embraced online media such as websites and blogs in the 2004 presidential election. However, campaign 2008 was truly the first time that Web 2.0 technologies — those that allow for more wide-open social interactivity and networking — played a major role in a presidential race. One outstanding research question remains whether or not such technologies will ultimately narrow or broaden the marketplace of ideas to which citizens are exposed.

According to a Pew Internet survey, in 2008 approximately 25% of Americans got their political news primarily from the Internet. While most traditional news outlets strive to cultivate a balanced perspective, many blogs take sides and fiercely advocate for their preferred candidates and causes.

The number of evening network news stories about the presidential nominating contests has generally declined in recent decades, according to a paper by scholars at George Mason University. The 2008 election — which for a variety of reasons generated massive media attention — stands as an exception to this trend. But whether or not 2008 is a sign of renewed interest by the television networks, or just an anomaly, remains to be seen during the 2012 election cycle, the researchers note.