Elections

Random Digit Dialing (RDD) is a popular research method in which participants are contacted by the random dialing of telephone numbers. As more U.S. residents move to cell phones, however, they are increasingly out of reach of such traditional phone-based surveys. The Internet can also be used to administer surveys, and it has the advantage of allowing researchers to target specific populations (known as a “probability” survey) or random groups (a “non-probability” survey).

Iowa has seen significant demographic changes in the past decade as its Latino population has grown. How this trend intersects with voting patterns and political attitudes is of strong interest to scholars and election observers, of course, because of the Iowa Caucuses’ importance in the presidential nomination process.

In U.S. presidential nominating contests, campaigns must figure out how to allocate limited resources in order to maximize outcomes in terms of contests won and party delegates gained. Strategies may, of course, depend on the relative strength of a candidacy and be contingent on available money and candidate time.

Early money raised, momentum and high poll numbers are often seen by political observers as key factors in predicting how candidates will fare in the presidential primaries. However, the role of endorsements — particularly from a core group of influential party backers — is a factor that, according to some political scientists, has not received enough attention.

Up to 60% of Iowa 2008 Republican presidential caucus attendees considered themselves Protestant evangelicals, which likely led to the unexpected victory of born-again Republican candidate Mike Huckabee over front-runner Mitt Romney. The relation between religious and political affiliations, however, is not always so clear-cut, as evidenced by the decisions Democratic evangelicals must make.

Scholars have long been in interested in describing precisely and theorizing what role campaign momentum — the use of a victory to push a lead more decisively against opponents — plays in the electoral process.

Political science scholarship has focused extensively on how voters make choices as the presidential primary campaign formally unfolds. But there has been relatively little study of which factors shape voter preferences in the informal period before the primaries.